The thesis of Weber (2005) analyzes empirical data from non-residential appraisals which reveals wide differences in values for the same property at the same point in time by different appraisers. The variance resulted from inadequate highest and best use analysis.
A second dataset of seven appraisals of two brownfields by nine appraisers revealed why the scientific process is superior to traditional methods. A valuation model was developed that integrates the scientific process into the appraisal process to solve the problem.
A third dataset confirmed Graaskamp (1984) attributing lack of advancement in appraisal to:
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consumers of appraisals feeling that appraisal models are no longer relevant
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clients benefiting by exploiting the ambiguity of traditional valuation models
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appraisers proven invulnerability to damages caused by their malfeasance and that
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the American business ethic allows clients to edit appraisals by their withholding of appraisal fees until their needed value is attained
This finding necessitates the use of scientific methods in valuation to preclude major valuation bias. Other contributions to knowledge follow: A stochastic model of situs was developed to forecast its effect on determinants of value within micro-markets and to quantify risk. The model met all of the requirements for a reliable brownfield valuation model per the literature. Two problems are solved that redevelopers of contaminated land find essential to solve as part of their valuation of such properties:
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The most likely property value subsequent to remediation and redevelopment
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The risk to equity capital needed to pay for the cost of remediation
Solutions were also found for five previously unsolved problems that were found to be required in order to facilitate the redevelopment of contaminated sites per US and German regulators. One is a valuation procedure for formerly used sites. Traditional methods used in the brownfield appraisals did not explain any variance in retail value of acreage; solve either of the redevelopers’ problems, or any of the environmental regulators’ problems.